@InProceedings{RammigLPQBKPOMVN:2018:EsLiAm,
author = "Rammig, Anja and Lapola, David M. and Pinho, Patricia and Quesada,
Carlos A. N. and Brown, Irving F. and Kruijt, Bart and Premebida,
Adriano and Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud and Marengo,
Jos{\'e} A. and Vergara, Walter and Nobre, Carlos A.",
affiliation = "{Technical University of Munich} and {Universidade Estadual de
Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {University of Edinburgh} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas da Amaz{\^o}nia (INPA)} and {Universidade
Federal do Acre (UFAC)} and {Wageningen University} and
{Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de
Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN0} and
{World Resources Institute} and {Instituto Nacional de
Ci{\^e}ncia e Tecnologia para Mudan{\c{c}}as Clim{\'a}ticas
(INCT)}",
title = "Estimating the likelihood of an Amazon forest dieback and
potential socio-economic impacts",
year = "2018",
organization = "EGU General Assembly",
abstract = "Almost 20 years ago, the Amazon forest-dieback hypothesis has been
proposed indicating that a large-scale loss of Amazon rainforest
may be caused by climate change which may lead to substantial
changes in ecosystem functioning and structure. Here, we revise
the likelihood of a potential Amazon forest dieback based on a
systematic literature review. We find that still large
uncertainties exist about the impacts and drivers of such event.
These uncertainties include the effects of increasing temperature
and atmospheric CO2 concentration, and long-term drought on forest
stability, the role of nutrient cycling and potential phosphorus
limitation on forest productivity and potential climate feedbacks,
in particular, the potential disruption of local rainfall
recycling. We assess, in the light of these uncertainties,
scenarios of potential socio-economic impacts that would result
from a large-scale Amazon forest dieback. For our assessment, we
consider the economic losses arising from changes in the provision
of ecosystem services, decreasing crop yields, reduction of
hydroelectric power generation potential, reduction of fish stocks
and interruption of shipping waterways. Long-term economic losses
are estimated between USD \$1,367 to \$6,928 billion (16%-80% of
Gross Brazilian Amazon Product), arising mainly from changes in
the provision of non-market value ecosystem services, decreasing
crop yields and reduction of hydroelectric power potential.
Trade-off gains coming from such a forest dieback would sum less
than half of the losses (USD \$576 to \$2,880 billion). We
conclude that, from a risk-analysis perspective, even with a low
probability of occurrence, the high socio-economic impacts of an
Amazon forest dieback make it, per se, a high-risk process.",
conference-location = "Vienna, Austria",
conference-year = "8-13 apr.",
language = "en",
targetfile = "ramming_estimating.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}